Nickel prices fluctuate sharply in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and continue to fluctuate at high levels of metal prices [institutional review]

Copper, aluminum, cobalt lithium and precious metal plates are recommended. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.00%, the CSI 300 Index fell 4.22%, the SW Nonferrous Index fell 7.03%, the precious metals COMEX gold rose 0.88%, and silver rose 1.29%. Major industrial metals LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, tin prices change-9.39%,-4.71%,-6.36%,-6.82%, 64.89%,-7.33%; LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, tin changes-4.81%, 6.27%,-1.28%,-11.40%,-1.79%,-1.96%.

Industrial metals: large fluctuations in nickel futures caused metal futures prices to fluctuate, and steady growth supported industrial metal prices. Core point of view: under the influence of financial factors in the international nickel futures market, the sharp rise and fall in nickel prices leads to large fluctuations in industrial metal prices as a whole. we believe that price fluctuations in the futures market mainly bring short-term shocks, and under the background of stable domestic growth, continue to be optimistic about the upward trend of industrial metal prices, while we still need to pay attention to the impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine on metal prices. Aluminum: supply-side domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity continues to rise, concentrated in Yunnan, Qinghai and other places, with the arrival of the traditional peak season, downstream demand is improving, the social inventory of Chinese aluminum ingots began to show a trend of destocking. Copper: domestic scrap copper faces the risk of short-term supply disruption due to policy reasons, supporting copper prices; on the demand side, the recovery of domestic spot demand in March is basically established, affected by changes in European and American sanctions against Russia, copper prices rose first and then fell during the week. Focus on: Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Shenhuo, Yunnan Aluminum, Nanshan Aluminum, Chinalco, Suotong Development, Yiqiu Resources, Tin shares, Tongling Nonferrous, Western Mining, China Nonferrous Mining and so on.

New energy metals: lithium supply warms up slightly, but the supply gap is obvious, cobalt continues to be disturbed by transportation, and the price of lithium cobalt is easy to rise and difficult to fall. Core point of view: sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 334000 in February, up more than 180% from the same period last year and down about 20% from the previous month. The decline in demand from the previous month was mainly affected by the rising cost of raw materials. Cobalt: the supply side continues to be tight, and the transportation cost of cobalt raw materials is on the upway. affected by the rising price of cobalt intermediate products driven by the rising price of cobalt overseas, the instability of shipping schedule, the increase of transportation costs in customs and other factors, the superimposed inventory is still at a low level, supporting the upward price of cobalt. Lithium: this week, lithium carbonate manufacturers have completed maintenance, the supply has increased; lithium hydroxide some salt plants are still in the maintenance stage, the demand side, benefiting from the increase in high nickel orders, lithium hydroxide procurement demand increased, substantial removal of storage, the price of lithium hydroxide rose rapidly, and the price gap between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate narrowed. Focus on: Huayou Cobalt Industry, Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Tianqi Lithium Industry, Yongxing Materials, Salt Lake shares, Tibet Mining, Shengtun Mining, Northern rare Earth, etc.

Precious metals: Russian and Ukrainian geopolitics drive safe-haven demand, and gold prices may continue to rise against the backdrop of high inflation. Core point of view: risk aversion in the market under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine affects the price of gold, inflation continues, and there is still room for gold prices to rise. The US CPI growth rate reached 7.9% in February compared with the same period last year, which remained high. The COMEX gold price reached an all-time high of 2078.8 US dollars per ounce during the week, before falling back under the influence of the news of the easing of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. High inflation is expected to persist for a long time, US medium-and long-term real interest rates are expected to remain low, and precious metal prices are expected to continue to rise in the future. Highlight

Attention: Chifeng Gold, Yintai Gold, Zhaojin Mining and Shandong Gold.

Risk hints: lower-than-expected demand; release of supply exceeding expectations; policy uncertainty; geopolitical risk